If you know how much something costs, you can budget and plan ahead. With this in mind, a team of researchers from MIT, the World Bank and the International Food Policy Research Institute recently developed a method of national level of estimation of the impacts of climate change and the costs of adaptation. This new method models estimates sectoral and economy-wide to help the authorities to prepare and plan for the future.
"Preliminary investigations at the national level impact assessment of climate change and adaptation which either focused on estimates of the economy as a whole or the analysis of the sector by sector, without looking at the big picture," says Kenneth Strzepek, one of the authors of the study and a researcher at the joint programme at MIT on the science and policy of Global change. "Looking at the interaction between different sectors and within the economy, we are able to assess indirect effects and interactions that can occur that they are often not captured."
As a case study (see PDF), researchers applied his technique to Ethiopia, the second most populated country in sub-Saharan Africa. Look into three sectors: agriculture, road infrastructure and hydroelectric power.
"These sectors were selected by their strategic role in the current economic structure of the country and its plans for future development," says Strzepek.
Agriculture accounts for about 46 percent of the GDP in Ethiopia and is almost entirely of dry land. Variability in temperature and precipitation will have significant impacts in this crucial sector. The researchers found that with an increase in temperature of two degrees Celsius, more intense droughts and floods will cause a drop in the production of crops, causing the reduction of income, employment and investment.
Frequent and intense floods also damaged road infrastructure in Ethiopia, the backbone of the transport system in the country and a necessary link in the chain of supply of agricultural products. The researchers found that floods caused by climate change will increase maintenance costs therefore as $14 million per year to the existing road network, which is expected to grow significantly in the next 40 years.
The intense rainfall variability will also impact the country hydroelectric power and storage of the associated reservoir, which could provide power, irrigation, and flood mitigation. There are hydroelectric capacity currently installed shortly in Ethiopia, the model showed some impacts of climate change. But in the coming years, the Government plans to invest heavily in this sector, means that it could potentially have significant impacts in this sector.
In addition, the researchers found that there would be a greater demand for water in the sectors and create challenges for the authorities effectively distribute this important resource. For example, Ethiopia plans to expand agriculture irrigation by 30 percent by 2050. The researchers found that some of the demands of irrigation will be unsatisfied, placing demands on other sectors that require water resources.
"This research makes clear impact of droughts, floods and other effects of climate change can have on infrastructure and important financial sectors," says Strzepek. "Ethiopia, we found that one of the best defenses against climate change is investing in infrastructure in transport, energy and agriculture." Through the construction of these sectors, the Government will be able to increase the resilience of the country."
He continued, "in predicting the results of future projects of water, infrastructure and agriculture, we have been able to prove the effectiveness of policies. "This gives the decision makers in these countries, as well as international organizations, the information they need to continue to grow, develop and plan for the future with climate change in mind".
Planning for climate change is essential, Raffaello Cervigni, co-author of the study and lead environmental Economist at the World Bank, writes in a recent blog.
"Climate change is first and foremost a priority of development for Africa... If measures are not taken to adapt to climate change, threat to dispel the achievements made by many African countries in terms of economic growth and reduction of poverty in the last ten years, "writes.
However, continues, "a harder climate doesn't need to be an impediment to African development." if we can get together to meet these challenges.
The integrated approach now used by the authors is being applied to studies on the costs of adaptation to climate change in Ghana and Mozambique, as well as Viet Nam. Others have replicated the approach to help other countries to calculate the costs of adaptation.
